Victory on the Wings of Hatred

We just had a real blood-pressure-raising election in Oyo State, Nigeria. Mysteries! Everyone wondered how the incumbent governor who was so strongly despised by so many people was so sure he would win. His confidence was extremely intimidating. His loss in that election was greeted with tremendous applause by people from all shades of opinion. I haven't seen such jubilation since the days of Obama's victory. But the victory of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) rode on the wings of the hatred which most people had for the incumbent governor. The votes were mainly protest votes. In a newspaper article published today, I advised the governor-elect, Mr Abiola Ajimobi to be wise in interpreting his victory. To read the article, click here.

Faces of the Post-Election Murderers

In the last past four days, I have received reports of woes and worries from Northern Nigeria. From family, friends and colleagues, the story is the same: armed youths are burning houses, hacking down Christians, southerners and northerners who did not support or vote for former military dictator, Muhammadu Buhari. In Minna, Niger state, 50 Christian youth corp members were locked up in the Nigerian Christian Corpers Fellowship House and the house was set ablaze! These corp members are just fresh from the university.

But look at the faces of those doing the actual killing and burning ... They are very young teenagers who weren't even old enough to have voted. These are Almajiri beggars who are on Islamic and Arabic training. Without father or mother, without education or skills, without any chance of a meaningful today or hope of a bright future...they feed on leftovers and from garbage. It is thus easy to see why their lives and the lives of others mean nothing to them. You can't reason with them. They know very little, speak only Hausa and understand very little. To put it very charitably, the Almajiri is a creature who has been denied the right to become a real human being.

The Almajiri system of Arabic schooling has been described as deplorable. Yet, it cannot be controlled or abrogated. It provides a ready army of hungry and idle youths to politicians and religious fanatics bent on blood letting.

I hate this thought but it keeps popping up: In 2005, US Sub Saharan Intelligence Analysts and Futurologists predicted the possibility of the collapse of the Nigerian state within 15 years. Click here for the report of the analysts/futurologists. Fifteen years from 2005! Is anyone doing the math? If by 2015, Jonathan clinches a second term, we can only be sure of a worse massacre in the North. Maybe the process by which we may kiss Green-White-Green bye will then begin! Did anyone hear the call for a Sovereign National Conference in the papers? Maybe it's indeed time for Nigerians to sit and talk about Nigeria.

Speaker Dimeji Bankole--a Different Kind of Loser?

Mr Dimeji Bankole was Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives at Abuja for four years beginning from 2007. He thus was the longest serving speaker since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999. A young man with degrees from Ivy League universities, Bankole was model to many young people. His persecution by the governor of his state who saw his popularity as a threat and by the (former) Behemoth of Nigerian politics, Mr Olusegun Obasanjo only helped boosted his popularity. But Bankole also misbehaved several times and shocked Nigerians. During the Ekiti State re-run, Bankole openly sang a song: ‘We who deployed Mobile Police (MOPOL) to rig the last elections will now deploy soldiers’. This open declaration of war on the electorate was unfortunate. For once, Bankole, darling of many Nigerian young men, forgot what he stood for.

But Dimeji Bankole soon regained his consciousness. In the election that was conducted on Saturday 9 March, 2011, Bankole who contested on the platform of the hitherto invincible People's Democracy Party, was badly defeated. He lost his re-election bid by over 5,000 votes [ACN - William Samuel 28,490; PDP - Oladimeji Bankole 23,103]. Bankole lost the election but won something more important. Within hours of the counting of the votes, Mr Bankole was quoted as saying that "the result showed the wishes of the people". He conceded defeat!

Conceding defeat is extremely strange on the political scene in Nigeria. It is normal for politicians in Nigeria to spill bad blood when they lose. Bankole’s PDP suffered grave losses in the elections and before we wake up, the papers will be filled with cries of blue murder! Is Dimeji Bankole an exception? Maybe. For now, I'd say he lost the elections but recovered something—some of the refinement he brought from Reading and Havard which he had discarded for a long while.

Nigerian Electoral Violence--New Victims on the List

As the 2011 General Elections draw near, the spate of violence has also increased. Lives are lost and property destroyed. But all of that is familiar story. A new dimension is war on billboards and posters. It seems the saying is "if you can't reach the neck of the candidate [to cut it off], reach her/his billboards". [Billboard belonging to Mr Rasheed Ladoja, former governor of Oyo State, allegedly torn down by supporters of his former deputy, current governor and governorship candidate, Mr A. Alao-Akala] In Nigeria, it costs about N250,000 (about $1,650) to erect a billboard. In my state, where pupils in government schools receive lessons sitting on bare floors in the sun or in un-roofed classrooms, that is a lot of money. That will roof a four-room block of classrooms or provide furniture for 250 pulpils. And it is important to note that politicians in power spend government money on their campaigns. There is no difference between a governor's purse and state purse. See more pictures below. [Billboard belonging to Mr. A. Alao-Akala allegedly torched by supporters of one of his opponents, Mr R. Ladoja or Mr A. Ajimobi] [Billboard belonging to a member of the Oyo State House of Assembly, also ripped.] I spoke with a few party loyalists. You can predict their position: "We didn't start it. They first tore our billboard. We merely responded". [Billboard completely ripped.] What do Nigerians think? Nigerians would be much happier if the only things that were ripped, torched or destroyed were billboards, and if heads, limbs, houses and cars are spared! "This is okay", an elderly man told me. "If this is all they cut, it is their problem. Let them stop cutting people's legs or destroying innocent people's car. No one will complain". Yemisi Pedro, an undergraduate student of environmental engineering thought differently. According to her, "if we cost the environmental hazards and depletion caused by this behaviour, we would be very sorry for ourselves and our future. The more you destroy these things, the more manufacturers have to manufacture; the more raw materials are used up and resources are depleted. And when you burn them to destroy them or to dispose of them, you're just burning our fragile ozone layer". I think when we combine the cost of destroyed property and lives with the environmental hazards mentioned by Pedro, we will realise that democracy is indeed very costly in Nigeria.

Are Tunisia and Egypt Headed for Nigeria?

Besides regular change of political leaders, one other commonly held properties of development is that it is accompanied by neoliberal policies--free market. With a long leap of faith, pundits and academics sugggest that a free market policy will attract foreign investors and thereby, promote economic development. Democracy is therefore believed to come with development. These assumptions have been challenged by the growth of Japan and China which are so-called non-democratic countries. But that has been no reason to doubt the desirablity of democracy.

As I listened to the rhetoric of anti- (and pro-)government protesters in Egypt and Tunisia, I heard echoes of our own protests against the military in the decade before 1999. Expressions such as "rented crowd" "pro-democracy groups" "pro-government protests" "militant media" etc remind one of the struggles for democracy in Nigeria. In a sense, we can say Egypt (in spite of itself) and Tunisia are where Nigeria was about two decades ago. And that is true as far as periodic elections are concerned.

Tunisia was ruled by Ben Ali for 23 years and Egypt by Mubarak for 30 years. Nigeria has been a democracy with regular change of leadership for 12 years now. But do Tunisia and Egypt really desire to be where Nigeria is? Acccording to MDG Monitor (An Initiative of the UN), both Tunisia and Egypt are far ahead of Nigeria in terms of development. In terms of Human Development Index, Nigeria ranks 159th of 177 countries but Tunisia ranks 87 and Egypt 111st. Life expectancy at birth in Nigeria is 46.6 years; in Egypt it is 69.8 while in Tunisia it is 73 years. In spite of their lack of democracy, Tunisians still live far longer than Nigerians! Over 70% of Nigerians live below poverty line, that is they live on less than $1.5 daily. In Egypt, such people form only 3.1%; in Tunisia it is 2.0%. About 97% of Egyptian and Tunis children are enrolled in primary schools but in Nigeria only 65% of children are enrolled in schools. In all respects, these non-democratic countries are far better in development terms than Nigeria.

Is democracy anti-development, therefore? Maybe not. However, democracy, in Nigeria at least, has been an extremely expensive venture. One batch of corrupt and selfish leaders is replaced by another just different only in its greater commitment to self-enrichment. Each leader is surrounded by a swarm of assistants, personal assistants, special assistants and a private army. The outcry by the Governor of Central Bank, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was that 25% of the nation's budget is consumed by the National Assembly. About 500 people share 25% of what is meant for 150million people. Yet this is a democracy where the people are supposed to be on the driver's seat.

Tunisians and Egyptians must have a rethink: if chasing Ben Ali and Mubarak off will turn them into the kind of democratic Paradise for Maggots* that Nigeria has become, is all the fight and bloodshed worth it? And that is the belated question Nigerians are asking: was this the democracy for which we fought and were exiled, jailed and /or shot and killed?

* Title of a recent book by Wale Adebanwi on the indefatigable anti-corruption czar in Nigeria, Nuhu Ribadu

This Dart Hits Me III: Not a Merry Xmas

Christmas Eve saw evil descend on Jos and Maiduguri. On Friday 24, three bombs exploded in Jos--two in busy Jos markets and one in a Catholic church. Over thirty people were killed in Jos; several more wounded. In Maiduguri, a church was burnt and a pastor and two others were killed.

My friend, John Galadima, lives in Jos with his family. John teaches Mass Communication in University of Jos, Nigeria. But he was in Ibadan this season to get ready for the final defence of his PhD thesis coming up soon. When John got the news that his hometown was in flames, he was totally crestfallen. He spent nearly all on him making calls to his wife and relatives. In the evening, John had to take a shot of local gin to douse his rising restlessness. Thank God, his family members were not harmed. Contrary to tradition, I decided not to send any SMS this year wishing anyone merry Xmas. It was not a merry Xmas.

What is sad about all of this is that there had been clear signals that there would be attacks during Christmas in Jos. Five days before dropping the bombs in Abuja on October 1, militants warned government; days before Boko Haram invaded the Bauchi prison and set their bloodhounds free, government got wind of it. All of the recent blasts, attacks, massacres were preceded by what is more than rumours of the atttacks. And don't think that the Nigerian security agents are dumb asses. They are simply overstretched protecting the rich political class. Merry Xmas?

This Dart Hits Me--Part II (Darkness Covers the Land)

The promise of the Federal Government was to increase electricity supply to 6,000 megawatts by December last year (2009). Well, like many other promises from government, that failed woefully. Right now, the 120million people in Nigeria survive on less than 2,000 megawatts. I wrote on this in an earlier post on this blog: Home Sweat Home. Most Nigerians have adjusted to the darkness and frustration created by the absence of electricity--as well as to the hellish noise created by generators used by neighbours. For six weeks, there was no electricity supply to the building that houses my faculty. That did not bother me too much. What recently hit me was this: university students having to write exams with candles. It was an evening paper and by 6pm it was dark already. The lecturer in charge had to provide candles so that the exam could continue! See pictures following--if you can see anything! Tomorrow, the government will complain Nigerian students aren't performing as good as their counterparts elsewhere. They will lament that Nigerian universities aren't among the top 1,000 in the world. And they always blame lecturers for that.